The world is shocked, Vietnam's coffee prices are about to break the historical peak

12/07/2024 10:46

Robusta coffee had a shocking session to 4,634 USD/ton, officially surpassing the record recorded in May at 4,530 USD/ton. Domestically, coffee prices have also increased, about to break the historical peak.

According to statistics of the General Department of Customs, in the first half of this year, our country exported nearly 894,000 tons of coffee beans of all kinds, with an estimated value of 3.19 billion USD. Compared to the same period last year, although the export volume of coffee decreased by 11.4%, the value increased sharply by 33.2%.

Accordingly, in just the first 6 months of the year, the export value of coffee exceeded the total export turnover of previous years (except for 2022 and 2023), making coffee the industry with the 4th highest export turnover in the agricultural sector.

Notably, the average export price of Vietnam's coffee in June reached 4,489 USD/ton, up 5% compared to the previous May and up 67.3% compared to the same month last year. Generally, in the first 6 months of this year, the average export price of this nut of our country reached 3,570 USD/ton, up 50.4% over the same period in 2023.

Source: Vietnamnet.vn

In the world market, the trading session on July 10 continued to witness the shocking upward momentum of this "bitter" nut. Accordingly, on the London Exchange, the price of Robusta coffee for delivery in September 2024 increased by 286 USD, to 4,634 USD/ton; the delivery term in November 2024 also increased by 288 USD, to 4,464 USD/ton.

Thus, the price of Robusta coffee on the world market officially exceeded the record of 4,530 USD/ton recorded in May.

In the domestic market, the price of coffee beans continued to increase sharply, to 128,000-129,000 VND/kg depending on the locality.

With this increase in coffee prices, experts and coffee businesses said that the price of this strong nut in Vietnam can exceed the historical peak of 134,000 VND/kg recorded at the end of April this year and set an all-time record.

There are many factors supporting the increase in coffee prices, especially the Robusta line, which Vietnam has the world's top output.

Specifically, the demand for coffee from European importers increased due to the trend of stockpiling inventories ahead of time to comply with European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) standards. Previously, the EUDR was introduced to reduce the import of products related to deforestation and require strict due diligence and traceability measures for agricultural and forestry products, including coffee.

Robusta output in the next crop is forecast to decrease sharply. Source: Internet

In addition, drier weather than usual in the world's two largest coffee producing countries, and the upcoming winter in Brazil, make the market more sensitive to early-season chills in South America.

Particularly for Robusta, this type of coffee has also strengthened its price momentum when there are concerns about excessive drought in Vietnam along with epidemics that can lead to loss of production, affecting global supply.

The Vietnam Cocoa Coffee Association estimates that our country's Robusta coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop will reach about 26.7 million bags (60kg bags), however, the 2024-2025 crop is likely to decrease to 21.4-22.7 million bags.

This figure is significantly lower than Volcafe's preliminary forecast of 24 million bags and much lower than the 27.85 million bags estimated by the US Department of Agriculture.

Some coffee companies said that their warehouses are almost empty, while October has just entered the new harvest season in our country. This is also a factor that pushes the price of coffee beans in the market to increase sharply and anchor at a very high threshold.

It is forecasted that Vietnam's coffee output in the coming season will decrease sharply.

Source: Vietnamnet.vn