Shrimp exports to the US and related developments

25/11/2024 15:39

Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US in October this year reached more than 80 million USD, up 17%. Accumulated in 10 months, shrimp exports to this market earned 646 million USD, up 10% over the same period.

Shrimp imports to the US from the top 3 main suppliers have all decreased, which raises concerns about supply shortages. Market sentiment and the economic situation are more optimistic, inventories are decreasing, and supply exceeding demand has been rebalanced. Therefore, the demand for imports from the US is expected to be higher and the price of shrimp in this market has also improved and tends to increase.

The average export price of Vietnamese white leg shrimp to the US this year, recorded a continuous increase from February to July, then decreased continuously in the 3rd quarter to 9.9 USD/kg in September and increased again to 10.3 USD/kg in October.

The average export price of Vietnamese black tiger shrimp to the US this year is unstable, reaching a high of 18.9 USD/kg in March, then decreasing continuously for the next 3 months. The price of black tiger shrimp rose and fell continuously from June to October with the price reaching 15.2 USD/kg in October.

In the US retail market in October this year, among frozen seafood products, frozen shrimp continued to be the item with the highest sales in both volume and sales value, with sales value increasing by 6% in October. Fresh shrimp also recorded an increase in sales in October. Demand for both items increased, partly due to a decline in average prices, stimulating demand from American consumers.

Mr. Trump's proposal to increase import tariffs on goods into the US after his re-election has made US businesses tend to speed up imports, to hoard goods before taxes. So in the last months of the year, the demand for US imports of goods, including shrimp, will continue to increase. But it also requires businesses to be well prepared to deal with risks such as increased freight rates.

US shrimp imports from Ecuador decline

In September 2024, imports from Ecuador decreased by 17% compared to the same period last year. However, imports from all major Asian suppliers increased. Imports from India increased by 2%, imports from Indonesia increased by 14% and imports from Vietnam increased by 21%.

In Q3 2024, imports from Ecuador decreased by 21% compared to 2023, imports from India decreased by 8%, and imports from Indonesia decreased by 4%. In contrast, imports from Vietnam increased by 7%.

In terms of import volume in the first 9 months of this year, Ecuador decreased by 8% in 2023, India decreased by 1% and Indonesia decreased by 12%. In contrast, Vietnam increased by 9%.

Regarding the main shrimp products imported into the US, in September 2024, imports of meat shrimp (mainly PD and PDTO shrimp) increased by 15% over the same period last year. In the 3rd quarter of 2024, imports of this product increased by 5% over the same period last year and in the first 9 months of the year, up 1% over the same period. Imports in the first 9 months of the year, from India, Ecuador and Vietnam increased by 3%, 2% and 27% respectively. Imports of this product in the first 9 months of the year from Indonesia decreased by 19%. In 2024, this Indian product leads the supply with a market share of 57%.

Imports of shelled shrimp (mainly HLSO and HLSO EZP) of the US in the first 9 months of the year decreased by 12% compared to the same period last year. Imports from Ecuador, Indonesia, India and Vietnam fell by 14%, 7%, 17% and 5%, respectively. In 2024, Ecuador dominates supply with a 52% market share.

Imports of steamed and seasoned shrimp (mainly PD and PDTO) decreased by 9% in the first 9 months of the year. Imports from India, Indonesia and Vietnam fell by 12%, 15% and 11%, respectively. Imports from Ecuador increased by 21%. In 2024, India will dominate the supply with a 39% market share.

Imports of breaded shrimp increased by 2% as of September this year. Imports from Indonesia, Vietnam, Ecuador and India increased by 1%, 28% and 204%, respectively. Imports from Ecuador fell by 17%. In 2024, Indonesia will dominate the supply with a market share of 40%.

On November 19, 2024, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) determined that the U.S. domestic shrimp industry suffered losses because imported shrimp were sold at a price lower than fair value or benefited from subsidies.

The USITC has affirmed the conclusion of the US Department of Commerce (DOC) that frozen warm water shrimp from Indonesia is sold in the US at a price lower than fair value is well-founded. At the same time, USITC also agrees with the DOC's conclusions that shrimp imported from Ecuador, India and Vietnam are subsidized by the domestic government. This decision "paves the way" for the US Department of Commerce to issue a countervailing order on shrimp imported from Ecuador, India and Vietnam, as well as an order to impose anti-dumping duties on shrimp from Indonesia.

If the tariff order is issued, Vietnamese shrimp exports to the US will face more challenges. Vietnamese shrimp enterprises have to manage and find ways to keep the market by focusing on products that are not subject to tariffs.

Source: thongtincongthuong.vn